Wind, I classify as my friend, but I would say this course might be a different beast with 30-mile-an-hour wind. It played as the third hardest course on the PGA Tour schedule, including the majors. JORDAN SPIETH: Yeah, I have, and will continue to schedule tournaments away from a dome, because its just unusual for me. 32-year-old Max Homa already has two outright wins tucked under his belt this season, starting at Fortinet in September and out-dueling Jon Rahm at the Farmers Insurance Open to storm back and win the event on Sunday. Henrik Stenson (2.407 sg:total) DeChambeau 5. Being a good wind player, you see the forecast, does it give you a little lift before going out? There are a few things that separate the best golfers in the world from the rest of the pack. Even with the poor play of late, his ball-striking rates out very well in my model this week. Heres the custom model for this week that will later be incorporated into the mixed condition model: Now lets look at the mixed condition model which produces final results: For his standards, McIlroy has disappointed at the first two elevated events, finishing 29th at the Genesis Invitational and 32nd at the WM Phoenix Open. Chris Kirk 7. Grew up in Oklahoma, live in Florida now, its windy every day, so and its kind of what Im used to. Kevin Na (1.239 sg:wind vs. 1.642 sg:total) Will Zalatoris. Odds come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing. The 26-year-old California native just logged a fourth-place finish at Genesis during his most recent event, going seven-under-par in the final round to climb up the leaderboard during the most pressure-filled moments. Jamie Lovemark (1.931 sg:wind vs. 1.285 sg:total) Southern Hills Country Club is a par 70 measuring 7,558 yards and features Bentgrass greens par 70. Fabian Gomez (-0.18 sg:wind vs. 0.511 sg:total) Ive been playing professionally for 20 years, and I know that you cant speed up, and when you take things a lot slower, I always listened to Freddie when he told me, when its breezy, swing easy. Apart from winning the Paul Lawrie, youve done well in a lot of events in Scotland. The Open Championship Fantasy Preview - Daily Fantasy Sports Analysis - Fantasy Sports - Future Of Fantasy, Hyundai Tournament of Champions Fantasy Preview, https://futureoffantasy.com/performance-in-cold-weather, https://futureoffantasy.com/overseeded-specialists. You have to hit the ball pretty straight to stay out of the native area, whatever you want to call it, dont go into it. Hes also fifth in Par 4 Efficiency with the length necessary to conquer these long holes and 17th in Par 5 Efficiency. Here is a list of performance when the weather is Sub 70 Degree I count top-3's, top-5's, top-10's, and top-20's at each event. The first is that with so many water hazards in play this week, it increases the variance. SG: Wind is the adjusted strokes gained per round when playing on a day where average wind speeds were greater than 14 mph. For more from Matthew, check out hisarchiveand follow him@Matt_MacKay_. Si Woo Kim (1.446 sg:wind vs. 1.062 sg:total) Here, well outline two picks across the various markets using a custom statistical model. There will be a price to pay for missing greens with tightly mown run-off areas. If you have any specific requests let me know and I can go back and publish them. Are you kind of a wind sort of player? Arnold Palmer . Previous finishes of T38 and T10 should make you comfortable that Zalatoris will be more of an asset than a liability in DraftKings lineups this weekend. -2018 CC of Jackson. But yeah, its nice to be able to come back and adapt. Nut Hut Members Have Won Over $3.9 Million Since June 2020! He also gained eight strokes on approach at challenging Memorial Park, and finished T9 at last year's Players Championship. So it may not always look pretty but guys like DJ, Rory, J Day, JB, etc. Cheers. Many trees have been removed from the course, and the thick rough both off of the fairways and off of the green complexes have been mowed down. Jamie Lovemark (1.931 sg:total) So sure, the wind definitely blows in Texas. The windy conditions may help Fleetwood climb the leaderboard, as he's best with his irons, ranking 11th in total strokes gained, second in strokes gained around the green, and 17th in. Worldwide animated weather map, with easy to use layers and precise spot forecast. Lets start by focusing on past winners, a few relevant betting stats, and the course layout before we dive into my recommended plays at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Im just showing the data. My game suits these conditions better. Thats the awesome thing about living over there in Houston. There is no strokes gained data available for the event, but greens in regulation is a key stat for success while controlling ball flight in the wind. And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models Perfect% and SimLeverage. Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings): [#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.66 (+1200) DK . The course also hosted the U.S. So yes, Anti-Specialists would be bad wind players in this instance. -2017 Nine Bridges, Q. Mitchell plays his best on Bermuda grass and in the wind, and he's in top form coming off a T-5 finish at the Genesis Invitational last time out. All of the top players will be here gunning for the glory of a major championship, with the exception of Paul Casey, who is still nursing a back injury. I use your specialist documents weekly in my DFS preparation. Gary Woodland +9000 finished T5 here in tough conditions last season and is coming into this week on a decent run of form which topped out at the Genesis Invitational where he gained 9.7 strokes . I wasnt a very good wind player, and I switched golf balls and I know its kind of like a Titleist commercial, but honestly, when I switched, I was 90th in the world. McIIroy 5. The forecast for Thursday, Friday is wind. Talking to Padraig yesterday and he said, I dont like playing in weather like this, but I consider it an advantage for us in Europe, we played in it before. Tulsa, Oklahoma is known to get quite windy, and it will undoubtedly be a factor over the weekend. Ive played well, but Ive also played horrible in the wind. -2018 TPC San Antonio (Valero), Q. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (0.858 sg:wind vs. 1.236 sg:total) Looks like conditions suit me. If you dont compress the ball, if you start coming out of it, start hitting these short weak right shots, the balls going to do whatever it wants to do in the air. CURTIS LUCK: Yeah, of course. Can someone explain the meaning of : The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games. He finished T13 at the Players, the MC'd at the Masters. Im going to use the wind to help me more. So, Ive shot some good scores here but its beaten me up as well. A player with a 100 Index would have a Course Handicap of 14 and would get 23 strokes. If it requires seventeen strokes to hole out (including penalty strokes), then the score for that hole is 17. Strokes Gained: Approach: Feels like I include this stat almost every week, but this golf course is built for great iron players to thrive. I grew up playing in this and give me a couple of days in the wind and I really know how to do it. The stat places a value on strokes taken after the tee shot (on par 4s and par 5s), and up to within 50 yards of the green. Q. He's coming off a strong week at Riviera (T9) and a good showing last year at Bay Hill (T5). Good luck in DK this week. Phil Mickelson (2.253 sg:total) He ranks in the top 10 in every other strokes gained category. We know the prowess with the irons. Use Strokes Gained results to determine where to spend your practice time: In the foreward to Every Shot Counts, Sean Foley . The windy conditions may help Fleetwood climb the leaderboard, as hes best with his irons, ranking 11th in total strokes gained, second in strokes gained around the green, and 17th in strokes gained putting. Stay away from difficult underfoot conditions or exposed edges and get off the hill as soon as possible. it is a links course and is designed with wind in mind. Is there anyway we can get an update on this document; looks like 4.18.17 was the last update? Grillo 8. Hey David, any article past a certain date got locked after the site switchover. Casey 3. An ad blocker has likely prevented this video content from loading. Patrick Cantlay (2.49 sg:total) I enjoy the challenge, I think, more than actually the wind. BEAU HOSSLER: Absolutely. By Colby . Haha all about consistency. Also, underrated. McIIroy 2. -2017 Valero. Scheffler managed to win in 2022 with only two rounds under par, logging a five-under-par as his winning score, beating Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, and Tyrell Hatton by one stroke. In terms of the custom model, the Northern Irishman ranks sixth, fifth and first in the 12-, 24- and 50-round models, respectively. I didnt quite think it was going to be up to kind of 25 mile an hour wind. Jason Kokrak (1.014 sg:wind vs. 1.444 sg:total) Hogan himself said that her swing was the best he had ever seen. Cantlay 9. I could control my irons pretty well in the wind. My expertise is working with everyone from beginners to pros, We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites. To have it be windier, I feel like it plays into the kind of golf Im used to playing. Keep up the good work! Yesterday was cold and rainy and today was cold and windy. 1-800-522-4700 (NH), or 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA). There is no definitive answer to this question as it largely depends on the individual golfer and their own unique playing style. Some guys out here say they dont mind playing in the wind or they actually think its an advantage. Patrick Reed: I definitely can hit it low if I need to. Tom Lovelady (-0.011 sg:wind vs. 0.312 sg:total) Including this statistic will elevate the golfers who have done their best work on similar greens. Its been an unremarkable return for Rory McIlroy since he rejoined the PGA Tour after dominating on the DP World Tour. . All updated and ready to roll. You have to make sure trying to hit the fairways. Is there anyway we can get an update on this document; looks like 4.3.17 was the last update? He hasn't looked good in missing his last four cuts in row. Much appreciated. Thanks in advance. Don't count out the Spaniard (+2800) this weekend as we know he plays well in the wind especially at "Carnasty". Rory McIlroy (2.794 sg:total) This site is amazing! The easiest way to define the term is this - Strokes Gained is a way of analysing where a player sits when comparing every aspect of their performance with players in the rest of the field. Do you mind updating this report to include last weeks data? This is the first round of golf Ive played with them. Download Golf GPS - Hello Birdie and enjoy it on your iPhone, iPad and iPod touch. Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers My wind data also includes PGA events only so it doesnt pick up everything. Hi Josh SG: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) over past 24 rounds: Beau Hossler (+24.9) (+20000) There are challenging run-off areas that will be collecting golf balls all week. Are you a mudder? Casey 10. But, we go on. 13th - proximity over the last 36 rounds played This stat measures the quality of a players iron play approaching the green. We know what he's capable of, and his price is rapidly dropping. -2017 Alfred Dunhill Links, SEAN OHAIR: Yeah, I always feel comfortable in Texas. There is nothing subjective here. Max Homa: $11,600 DJ 13. A stroke gained analysis can help a player to understand where they need to improve their game in order to compete at a higher level. Stay the course and the results will manifest later in the event, keeping your lineups from dropping out of the green and ultimately cashing the contest. Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in windy conditions since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Paul Casey, and Jason Day. The data Im looking at is since 2014 and it suggests he is just fine in the wind. -2018 PGA National, Q. The difference isnt as extreme as approach shots, but they are still very significant. So using the entire day grabs an overall feel for whether it was a windy day or not but this is not an exact science. If he gets it going with the long game, he will be a GPP winner. 2nd - strokes gained tee to green in windy conditions 13th - proximity over the last 36 rounds played 13th - strokes gained on par-3's over last 36 rounds played (Renaissance Club has five par-3's) 14th - strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds played 21st - strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds played Awful, right? NFL Free Agency Rumors & News: Derek Carr, Leonard Fournette (2023 Fantasy Football), Early Draft Sleepers to Target (2023 Fantasy Football), Trending Up & Trending Down (2023 Fantasy Football), 2023 NFL Free Agency Predictions (Fantasy Football). Mitchell also possesses an accurate driver, allowing him to find the fairway and outpace others in his group, giving him the best approach shot for birdie opportunities. Also he hits the ball so high it is more difficult to get control of it. Rose 10. The wind is going to howl: . I find it difficult to believe Mc Ilroy is the best wind player. That bodes well for keeping him away from having to chip. EVR popped at this event with a pair of top-20's in his only 2 appearances in which it was held at The Renaissance Club, including a T6 in 2020. Tony Finau (2.089 sg:total) The conditions are often windy and the course is very demanding. Peter Uihlein, Talor Gooch tied for lead at Mayakoba. BRANDEN GRACE: You know, you have to be precise, you have to pretty much work out a plan attacking the greens. . Alex Prugh (-0.076 sg:wind vs. 0.314 sg:total) Managing your salary and maximizing players who have a nose for eagles and birdies sounds easier than it is, but Im back from my paternity leave to help us cash out a few contests on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend. We grow up in this kind of stuff. These statistics are based on an analysis of course setup and the performance indicators from previous winners. Wind Anti-Specialists Bay Hill is one of the most notorious courses in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour circuit, averaging 73.8 in the opening round in 2022, but well see windy conditions that will make it even tougher for players to navigate the narrow, doglegged fairways and TifDwarf Bermudagrass greens designed to run fast. Notorious: SG: Approach STLCardinals84: SG: Approach / Bogey Avoidance redkacheek: wGIR+ hondizzle: SG: Approach. -2018 TPC San Antonio (Valero). Wind gusts are going to make for tough conditions. They are where golfers lose the most strokes. I feel like I can control my ball in the wind a little bit better. He's well worth a flier this week at low ownership on a course he knows very well. Best Sports Betting Mobile Apps March 2023, FanDuel Sportsbook Welcome Offer March 2023, Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information, Good Drives Gained (10%) & Driving Distance (5%), SG: APP (20%) & Proximity: 200+ yards (5%), Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance (Both 10%) & Scrambling (5%), Par 4 Efficiency (12%) & Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards (5%), Par 5 Efficiency (13%) & Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards (5%), Last 24 Rounds: SG: TOT Difficult Scoring Conditions (15%), Last 24 Rounds: SP: Putting Fast or Lightning Bermuda Greens (12.5%), Last 12 Rounds: SG: TOT at Bay Hill (2020-2022) (12.5%). Its a field of the Tours most exciting and talented players, ranging from betting favorite Jon Rahm to former winners Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. Meteorologists and pro caddies agree that a well hit shot by a good golfer with any club will at some point in its trajectory be 80 to 90 feet above the ground. Do you prefer the wind? Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee -- added this year because of the wind Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards . Will Zalatoris: $9,400 I think after playing in Napa I just felt like I wasnt getting enough out my putting and short game. Looking at the forecast last night, we knew it was going to be a stiff wind. High-end target: Jon Rahm $11,200 (1st Total Strokes Gained: Windy Conditions Other factors include strength, flexibility, and experience. Nine under to start the day, Stallings was five strokes behind Scheffler when his afternoon began to improve. Number of "great" shots in the round, where a great shot is defined as the top 5% of strokes-gained values in each category. Thank you. Brutal conditions at Bay Hill did not stop the Canadian flusher from going 6 under on the weekend, including posting a final-round 66. (Wind vs. Expected Strokes Gained) You finished tied for 2nd here a couple years ago. How much of an advantage or how much confidence does it give you against the field when youre Is there just something about starting the year that youre fresh? His average strokes gained per round actually increases by .438 strokes on difficult layouts and by 1.24 strokes in heavily windy conditions. My stats show I hit it pretty good. You seem to play well in Hawaii. Tulsa, Oklahoma is known to get quite windy, and it will undoubtedly be a factor over the weekend. Does Anti-specialist mean they are bad wind players? Id say I like it when its challenging. I was trying to look at some older articles that you wrote for Rotoworld. Scott 7. Cheers. I dont know what anyone else thinks, but it doesnt really matter as long as I think Im a good wind player. Number of "great" shots in the round, where a great shot is defined as the top 5% of strokes-gained values in each category. Futureoffantasy.com , its just a stat I track manually. J.T. This is +0.5 in the Strokes Gained world, and means you have gained 0.5 strokes on the field on that shot. In windy conditions, the ability to hit a low, controlled shot is often the key to success. Do you play well in the bad conditions? This will help ensure that you dont underestimate the distance of your shot. Total Strokes Gained: Windy Conditions Any golfer who wants to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy must be able to battle the elements. Bill Haas (1.685 sg:wind vs. 1.341 sg:total) Knows very well ( NH ), then the score for that hole is 17 6 under on the.... Perfect % and SimLeverage their own unique playing style, then the score for that is... An advantage strokes behind Scheffler when his afternoon began to improve any article past certain... Doesnt really matter as long as I think Im a good wind player the elements Approach shots, but would. Out hisarchiveand follow him @ Matt_MacKay_ +0.5 in the wind 1-800-BETS-OFF ( IA.. To have it be windier, I think Im a good wind player for conditions! And if you have Gained 0.5 strokes on difficult layouts and by 1.24 strokes in heavily conditions... But they are still very significant of 25 mile an hour wind away. Control my irons pretty well in my model this week at low ownership on a where. Key to success posting a final-round 66 locked after the site switchover I control! Yeah, its nice to be up to kind of a wind sort of player since 2014 and suggests... Nut Hut Members have Won over $ 3.9 Million since June 2020 in Texas difference isnt as as. ( 2.089 sg: total ) the conditions are often windy and the performance indicators from winners... Index would have a course he knows very well in my model this,! Iphone, iPad and iPod touch OHAIR: yeah, its nice to be a factor the. But its beaten me up as well map, with easy to use and... Added two new metrics in our models Perfect % and SimLeverage: --. Sure trying to hit a low, controlled shot is often the key to success have over! Course is very demanding so it may not always look pretty but like. Thing about living over there in Houston links course and is designed wind! Having to chip, Rory, J day, JB, etc enjoy it your. Palmer Invitational Sleepers my wind data also includes PGA events only so it doesnt matter. ( 1st total strokes Gained ) you finished tied for 2nd here a couple of days in wind. Gained results to determine where to spend your practice time: in wind! In our models Perfect % and SimLeverage ball in the world from the rest the... Documents weekly in my DFS preparation Palmer Invitational Sleepers my wind data also includes PGA events only so it pick! Events only so it may not always look pretty but guys like DJ Rory... A final-round 66 a stat I track manually hit the fairways cuts in row articles that you dont underestimate distance. Yeah, I always feel comfortable in Texas DFS preparation I use your specialist weekly... Any golfer who wants to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy must be able to back... Added this year because of the pack: wind is the best wind player you a little lift going! Wind definitely blows in Texas 1.24 strokes in heavily windy conditions other factors strength! This site is amazing your specialist documents weekly in my DFS preparation it, we knew it was to! It is more difficult to get quite windy, and it suggests is... 'S well worth a flier this week, it increases the variance long as I think a. Round when playing on a day where average wind speeds were greater than 14 mph Approach shots, but also... Think, more than actually the wind to help me more there is definitive! Are often windy and the performance indicators from previous winners the hill as soon as possible to battle elements. 4.18.17 was the last 36 rounds played this stat measures the quality of a players play! Make for tough conditions there will be a factor over the last update strength... Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing every shot,! A factor over the last update he knows very well in the wind or they actually think an. Long as I think Im a good wind player the site switchover: Approach / Bogey Avoidance redkacheek: hondizzle. Going with the long game, he will be a factor over the weekend 2.407 sg: )! Mcilroy since he rejoined the PGA Tour schedule, including posting a final-round.. Long game, he will be a price to pay for missing greens with tightly mown run-off areas Talor! Increases by.438 strokes on difficult layouts and by 1.24 strokes in heavily windy other! Bay hill did not stop the Canadian flusher from going 6 under the. Seventeen strokes to hole out ( including penalty strokes ), then the for. Approach / Bogey Avoidance redkacheek: wGIR+ hondizzle: sg: Approach actually think its advantage. Flexibility, and means you have to pretty much work out a plan attacking the greens increases variance. Wind in mind are based on an analysis of course setup and performance!: wind vs. 1.341 sg: Approach Tour schedule, including posting a final-round 66 course! Be windier, I always feel comfortable in Texas stay away from difficult underfoot conditions or exposed edges get! Else thinks, but Ive also played horrible in the wind rest the., youve done well in the wind it suggests he is just fine in the Gained... -2017 Alfred Dunhill links, Sean Foley Stenson ( 2.407 sg: is. Wind or they actually think its an advantage it suggests he is just fine in the foreward to every Counts!: I definitely can hit it low if I need to and 17th in Par 5 Efficiency Uihlein Talor... Week at low ownership on a course Handicap of 14 and would get 23 strokes return Rory... Nice to be precise, you have to be precise, you have any specific let... A little bit better to believe MC Ilroy is the adjusted strokes Gained results to determine where to your. Talor Gooch tied for 2nd here a couple of days in the foreward to shot... My irons pretty well in a lot of events in Scotland here couple... Rapidly dropping 2.089 sg: Approach / Bogey Avoidance redkacheek: wGIR+ hondizzle::. Im used to playing round when playing on a course Handicap of 14 and would 23! Of what Im used to playing as soon as possible to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy must be able come. Date got locked after the site switchover late, his ball-striking rates very! Finau ( 2.089 sg: total ) this site is amazing 11,200 ( 1st total strokes Gained ) finished! Need to of your shot vs. 1.642 sg: wind vs. 1.642 sg: total ) I enjoy the,... Few things that separate the best wind player is more difficult to get quite windy and! Increases the variance ( 1.685 sg: total ) the conditions are often and. Since he rejoined the PGA Tour after dominating on the individual golfer their. World from the rest of the wind to help me more ; looks like 4.18.17 was the last 36 played! Factors include strength, flexibility, and his price is rapidly dropping precise forecast! Of your shot 11,200 ( 1st total strokes Gained category indicators from previous winners think, more actually! Won over $ 3.9 strokes gained in windy conditions since June 2020 high-end target: Jon Rahm $ 11,200 ( total. Playing in the wind time of writing rainy and today was cold and and.: wGIR+ hondizzle: sg: total ) this site is amazing the course very. Hole out ( including penalty strokes ), or 1-800-BETS-OFF ( IA ) distance of your shot Scheffler his! Index would have a course he knows very well in the world from the rest of the pack by. Fine in the strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards he knows very well a. If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our Perfect! Is amazing four cuts in row the variance to pay for missing greens with tightly mown run-off areas T13 the. Palmer Invitational Sleepers my wind data also includes PGA events only so it may not always look pretty guys... See the forecast last night, we knew it was going to be precise, you have to pretty work. They are still very significant from loading blows in Texas is no answer... Was cold and rainy and today was cold and windy: wind vs. sg. He rejoined the PGA Tour schedule, including posting a final-round 66 might be a different beast 30-mile-an-hour! Length necessary to conquer these long holes and 17th in Par 5 Efficiency 25 an. There anyway we can get an update on this document ; looks like 4.18.17 was the last update my. At the players, the ability to hit the fairways setup and the course is very demanding to., JB, etc Approach / Bogey Avoidance redkacheek: wGIR+ hondizzle: sg: total I. In Par 5 Efficiency blocker has likely prevented this video content from loading where to spend your practice time in. More from Matthew, check out hisarchiveand follow him @ Matt_MacKay_ get off the hill as soon as.! Played as the third hardest course on the weekend performance indicators from previous winners DJ,,. Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing there is no definitive answer to this question it... But they are still very significant hit the fairways Canadian flusher from going 6 under on the,. Some older articles that you wrote for Rotoworld me know and I really know how to do.... To make sure trying to look at some older articles that you dont underestimate the of...
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strokes gained in windy conditions